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Dear Derby City Daily Reader,
[PICTURED BELOW] That’s me in the middle, making the “we’re No. 1” gesture for the camera. A smiling Andy stands immediately to my left. Mom is behind me and Dad, with that striped yellow sports shirt, towers just off her shoulder. And then there’s Grandpa: He’s the proud guy in the middle, with the hat, suspenders, and pocket-protector…
My brother and I grew up in the small town of Evansville, Indiana. Our childhood was pretty normal, with one exception: Our Grandpa Rock owned racehorses, which frequently took us out to the racetracks of neighboring Kentucky, just a 30-minute drive from home.
Some of my best boyhood memories are of the trips we took to the 1.125-mile thoroughbred track at Ellis Park to watch those horses run. My parents always gave Andy and me $2 to bet – with a condition attached: We had to bet on grandpa’s horse. But we could pick whether it was to win, place, or show.
A “Win” wager carried the longest odds – since the horse had to run first – so it rewarded us with the biggest payoff.
A “Place” ticket had a slightly lower bar to clear – we collected if grandpa’s horse ran first or second – but those slightly improved odds also meant there was a slightly lower payoff.
“Show” tickets paid off if the horse ran first, second, or third – meaning it paid the least of the three wagers.
For a boy of nine growing up on the racetrack gave me an early introduction to the concept of risk versus reward – one that ignited a love affair with statistics, probabilities, forecasting, and handicapping that would prove useful with trading as well as horse racing.
There was one particular trip to the track that I remember over all the others: It was the day I made a “Trifecta Bet” that would serve as the inspiration for our investment research business – and for Derby City Daily.
So I guess it’s fair to say that this boyhood wager – and the lessons it taught my brother and me – is also the “inspiration” behind the three stocks we’re betting on for 2023.
The Trifecta Bet That Inspired Derby City Daily
I remember this race because Rock’s Rainbow was running that day. My mother gave me $12 – a 10 and two singles – with a clear expectation of how I’d use that cash. Two bucks was for the usual win/place/show wager. And Andy and I would use the remaining $10 for lunch – $5 each for a hot dog, chips, and a Coke.
Grandpa Rock’s horse wouldn’t run until later in the day and I was enjoying the races run beforehand, studying the win/place/show payouts and trying to figure out which was best. Then, I noticed this “$2 Trifecta Box,” which was paying out $100, $150, $250 – and sometimes even more.
How could a tiny $2 wager result in such big payoffs? I needed to know right then and there, so I asked my grandpa.
He explained that a “Tri Box” had you pick three horses; and as long as they came in first, second, third – in any order – you won.
Giddily, and sensing opportunity, I quickly thumbed through the upcoming races. The very next race had a field of just six horses – already better odds than the typical fields of eight to 12 horses I’d studied earlier that day. I was only supposed to bet on grandpa’s horse but even my preteen brain could see the opportunity and do the math: I’d pick the three “favorites,” figuring they’d be certain to outrun the three other favorites in the field.
This was too good a deal to pass up.
With just two minutes until post time, I sprinted to a betting window manned by a big, burly guy: “I’d like a $2 trifecta box on horses 3, 4, and 5, please,” I told him, and watched as he punched in my wager, and held out my ticket as he reached for my cash.
But he balked when he saw the two one-dollar bills I was trying to hand over.
“Son, that’s a TWELVE-dollar bet,” he told me.
“No sir… I said a TWO-dollar trifecta box,” I shot back.
“That is a TWELVE-dollar bet,” the big man insisted. “You owe me 10 more”
I was confused: Was he running a scam? Trying to cheat me?
I pulled out the $10 bill and held it in front of me, just staring at it. This was my lunch money. Andy’s lunch money. My $2 to bet on Grandpa Rock’s horse. I can’t spend this.
That’s when the starting bell sounded – its loud clanging filling the entire betting hall. It meant the race was starting. And it jarred that big man into action. The starting bell meant he’d processed an “official” bet. And it meant that his drawer was going to be $10 light.
Unless…
Right then, he reached across the counter and snatched that crumpled tenspot from my hands. I’ve never felt smaller or more helpless. So I made the only move I could: I grabbed the ticket and sprinted back to the track.
In my young mind, I could imagine my near-term future: My parents yelling at me… Andy punching me… Me crying (and going hungry). I was hoping for luck, but facing reality. I’d messed up – big time.
My sprint to the track ended with a hard collision into the rail – right at the finish line. But I didn’t care: I was already scanning the board to see how my horses were running. It was too late: They were already rounding the final turn and the digital display was off. I leaned over as far as I could; I had a perfect view as they came across…
Horse No. 5 in 1st—mine!
Horse No. 3 in 2nd—mine!
I wasn’t certain about that all-important third-place finisher. Several horses were grouped together, so it was all just a blur.
But in my young heart, I was sure it was No. 4—MINE.
I hit it! I hit the trifecta box!
As I said, I was no novice bettor – despite my youth. I’d waited for many payouts before this. But this one seemed to take forever. Finally, they posted the win/place/show pays, and after that, the Trifecta Box.
I’d hit it. For $94.50. BOOM!
I ran to my parents and made my confession. (Lesson to note: Forgiveness comes quicker to winners.) Suddenly, instead of hot dogs, fried chicken was on the lunch menu.
I remember Grandpa explaining to me why it was a $12 bet: The “trifecta” was a $2 bet. “Boxing” meant betting on every combination of the three horses. There are six combinations, so I was effectively betting six $2 bets.
That info would have been useful to me ten minutes ago, but I also wouldn’t have made the bet or won big, so I was good with it.
I didn’t crack the secret code to beating the track that day, but my juices were flowing – my win triggered a lifelong search for that “edge” – for that one special thing that would put me ahead of the proverbial “crowd.”
Missions like that can take time, but two decades after I placed that winning trifecta bet, Andy and I discovered that ultimate edge. And we found it in an obscure spot, where social media and the stock market intersect.
That intersection happens to be located right here in Louisville, KY, the true home of horse racing and the Kentucky Derby.
Or, as we like to call it, Derby City.
Our Very Own “Trifecta Box” of Investing
When you’re traveling the “right” path – when you’re pursuing a well-conceived plan – good fortune will find you, as it did with my brother and me.
An assignment during our stint at TD Ameritrade inspired a deep dive into Twitter, where we made an epiphany-level discovery:
- Consumers enthusiastically share the brands they purchased on social media…
- We found a way to use that data to forecast the sales of the companies that own those brands…
- And those sales forecasts can be used to make big-profit stock picks.
Once this lightbulb went off, and the link between social media chatter and purchase intent was clear, we knew we were sitting on a real edge.
The excitement I experienced from this discovery was almost déjà vu: It was the same kind of charge I got out of betting on the three favorites in a six-horse race.
We watched as consumer insights on social media spiked – and then sales followed suit. And it happened over and over again.
There is a difference, of course.
With horses, we were betting. With social media, we’re forecasting – using what we learned to make high-probability predictions. In short, this social-media-driven edge was real.
But we needed help to bring this strategy to life. There wasn’t a betting window to run to.
We founded LikeFolio to give our brainchild life. We got Megan Brantley (our VP of Research) on board. We even secured an endorsement from Georgetown University with a study that proved our technology could “predict” future outcomes.
And, from there, we were off to the races.
Since then, we’ve racked up win after win, all thanks to our very own “Trifecta Box” of investing that helps us identify profit opportunities when three key things line up in favor of a company:
- Strong Consumer Demand
- High Consumer Happiness
- Macro Trend Tailwinds
Finding this edge not only lets us cash in on the stock market but also helps thousands of individuals around the world do the same – leading our followers to rising stocks like Crocs (CROX) before they skyrocket to gains as high as 1,000% (or even more).
Now, we’re expanding our business even further with Derby City Daily to bring folks like you the competitive advantage you need to beat Wall Street.
Our wins will become your wins – starting today.
Win Big with Our Three Favorite Stocks for 2023
We’re making a hard charge out of the gate with stocks that Andy, Megan, and I have handicapped as three of the very best bets you can make for 2023.
Each of these companies hit the mark on our “Trifecta” strategy. And because of that, we believe the payoff will be big – very big…
For you.
So, let’s get started. Let’s run this stock market race together. Let our edge become your edge, too. Let us help make your dreams come true: Dreams of success, winning, and wealth.
Tune in below, and we’ll share the ticker symbols for these three must-own stocks for 2023:
And be sure to join us again tomorrow, when we’ll bring you still another hot “Trifecta” play.
This is a company that’s already got a cult-like following for its products – an army of hyper-enthusiastic consumers who are “casting votes” for its offerings. And the company is racing along with one of the single-most-powerful macro trends we’re watching. Combined, these three trifecta factors have pushed this company’s shares into “must-own” territory.
Join us and we’ll tell you all you need to know about it.
Until then, welcome to Derby City Daily.
We are blessed to have this opportunity, and some of it – at least a tiny part – traces back to the early ‘90s at a dirt track at Ellis Park in Henderson, Kentucky.
Cheers,
Landon, Andy, and Megan
The Derby City Daily Team