Spotify Is Riding a Surprising New Tailwind

Spotify (SPOT) is the original king of personalization, changing how consumers listen to and discover music.

Just look at its market dominance – even formidable competitors like Amazon Music (AMZN) and Apple Music (AAPL) can’t catch up.

Once you are on Spotify and the platform knows you, it’s really sticky… and holds tremendous pricing power.

It’s tough to switch platforms. And why would you? What other platform has a more compelling user experience?

Spotify’s take on the music “ownership” model disrupted how consumers listen to music… and made them dependent on an ongoing subscription.

But Spotify’s newest tailwind has nothing to do with personalization, music discovery, or even its subscription model…

The Next Tailwind to Send Spotify Higher

It’s rising mistrust in institutions.

A whopping 36% of American adults have no trust at all in mass media outlets, according to a 2024 Gallup poll – outweighing the 31% share of Americans who DO trust the media. (And this is the third year in a row Gallup has noted this alarming trend.)

As trust in traditional mass media plummets, podcasts and alternative “news” services like Spotify have gotten a boost.

The platform is non-political. It stuck to its guns a few years ago when the Joe Rogan censorship drama tried to cancel the platform. Fast forward a few years, and Rogan’s podcast remains the most listened to podcast in the world.

Both presidential candidates from this year’s election made appearances on popular podcasts, with Kamala Harris appearing on the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, and Donald Trump as well as his running mate J.D. Vance both appearing on the “Joe Rogan Experience.”

Spotify garnered an enormous audience over the last presidential election circuit – and this will no doubt provide a boost to ad revenue and subscriptions.

But the market knows it. SPOT is trading 161% higher year over year, near all-time highs.

So where does SPOT go from here?

LikeFolio Data Points to a Positive New Year

Well, our metrics show rising interest in Spotify’s subscription plans, notably its premium family plan that runs around $20 per month.

Despite these elevated costs, we see no significant signs of churn. Cancellation searches are flat year over year:

Mentions show rising interest ahead of the company’s annual “Spotify Wrapped” campaign, which gives a personalized recap of each individual user’s listening trends.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see more momentum in the stock from here. However, it’s important to acknowledge SPOT is already trading at very high levels – and the company, though dominant, is not immune to competition.

(We actually think X may compete a bit in the traditional podcast space.)

The New Year is an important time for subscription services because many consumers like to trim the fat in their budgets.

We’ll be monitoring cancellation mentions over the next month to better understand if Spotify has retained its pricing power.

So far, it looks like it will.

We’ll be back on Friday with our next issue of Derby City Daily. In the meantime, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends.

Until next time,

Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio

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