Coming Full Circle on TTD, NVDA, BTC, and ONON (Our First Picks)

380%, 285%, 125%, 20%: See which of our early picks delivered the biggest profits – and what comes next for these LikeFolio favorites…

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When we launched Derby City Daily on February 27, 2023, we made a hard charge out of the gate with three stocks – and a bonus asset – that Landon, Megan, and I hand-picked as some of our favorite opportunities for 2023:

1. My pick was streaming ad giant The Trade Desk (TTD)
2. Landon went with computer chip pioneer Nvidia (NVDA)…
3. And a high-growth bonus asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
4. Megan chose Zurich-based shoemaker On Holding (ONON)

We chose these names carefully. Our consumer insights machine was picking up significant momentum in three core areas:

• Strong Consumer Demand
• High Consumer Happiness
• Macro Trend Tailwinds

A lot has happened in the two years since, but one thing remained constant: These inaugural picks made us a hefty profit.

Landon Takes the Win

Much as I hate to admit it (brotherly competition is very real), Landon crushed it with two picks that proved to be the biggest winners to date.

Since February 27, 2023, NVDA has ridden the artificial intelligence (AI) craze to a 380% gain. And Bitcoin, buoyed by the decentralized finance (DeFi) mega-trend and powering higher on post-election optimism, is up 286%.

Megan’s up-and-coming running shoemaker, ONON, has impressed too, delivering +125% to date.

And my pick, TTD? As recently as December, it was a double-your-money winner, too… until an earnings fumble last month sent shares plummeting off their peak, taking our gain to just +20%. But while TTD may have lost me this friendly competition, it could present you – our readers – with the most outsized profit opportunity today. (More on that in a moment.)

For this final issue of Derby City Daily, it only made sense to go back to the very beginning and see where TTD, NVDA, BTC, and ONON stand now.

A few of these picks present even larger upside than they did back then, while for one, it could be time to cash out your profits…

What’s Next for These Inaugural Picks?

TTD: Down But Not Out

The Trade Desk has built a reputation for innovation, developed industry-leading ad tech solutions, and maintained a client retention rate above 95% for close to a decade.

Its Unified ID 2.0 is rapidly becoming the new standard for audience targeting, giving advertisers an alternative to the opaque data systems of walled gardens.

But after years of near-flawless execution, the company hit an unexpected hurdle in the fourth quarter of 2024, missing its internal revenue target for the first time in eight years.

This led to a major downturn in TTD shares, which are teetering near 52-week lows – despite reporting 22% year-over-year revenue growth and continued expansion of market share.

We see this selloff as an overreaction, not a warning sign. Our data suggests TTD saw a bit of a rebound in traffic through February – now pacing +15% higher on a year-over-year basis after flipping negative at the end of last quarter:

The CEO remains confident in the company’s trajectory, and so do we.

Growing pains and corporate restructuring contributed to the weak quarter, but they were the right long-term moves that ultimately will benefit the company.

TTD’s underlying bullish thesis remains intact, despite a near-term drag in the movement of advertisers to its Kokai AI platform. It’s a much better, more seamless platform that will streamline the process for advertisers to get the right eyes on their brands.

From here, the ongoing advertising shift from traditional to digital will only strengthen TTD’s position.

Bottom line: TTD is THE market leader in advertising on the open internet, and the current dip presents an accumulation opportunity for investors like us whose conviction holds strong.

NVDA: The Uncontested King of AI

Nvidia stock sold off in February on a fourth-quarter earnings report that coincided with breaking tariff news, which raised concerns about increased import costs, potential price hikes, and weakened consumer demand.

But long term, Nvidia’s data center growth remains explosive, and AI infrastructure investment shows no signs of slowing.

The company holds a dominant position in high-performance computing over competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC), boasting 35% year-over-year growth:

Demand for Nvidia’s industry-leading AI chips should only accelerate from here. Big tech companies are increasing their AI expenditures, including some of NVDA’s top customers: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Google (GOOGL).

By offering solutions that address the needs of both established giants and emerging firms, Nvidia is also well-positioned to capitalize on the broader shift toward more democratized AI development, ushered in by disruptors like DeepSeek and xAI’s Grok 3.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang remains entirely optimistic that AI momentum will continue, citing the shift towards reasoning and inference models which require “100 times more compute,” as well as a continued demand for AI infrastructure.

Bottom line: Nvidia’s long-term AI-driven growth story remains firmly intact. Volatility is inevitable, but investors taking the long view will continue to reap the profits.

Bitcoin: A More Asymmetric Bet Than Ever Before

We knew consumers were hot on DeFi and crypto when we recommended Bitcoin in that very first issue. But the SEC’s approval of the first Bitcoin spot exchange-traded products (ETPs) — investment vehicles that trade on exchanges like stocks – was the watershed moment that changed everything.

With exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investors can now gain exposure to Bitcoin through their regular brokerage accounts without directly buying or storing cryptocurrency. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) shattered records, becoming the fastest ETF in history to reach both $10 billion and then $20 billion in assets under management.

For the first time, major institutions could buy Bitcoin as easily as any stock, removing the technical barriers that had kept them on the sidelines.

The regulatory environment has improved leaps and bounds since then, especially with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. President Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance has led to a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which would further entrench Bitcoin’s role as a macroeconomic asset, not just a speculative one.

At LikeFolio, we believe we are in the very early stages of Bitcoin adoption, and the bet is more asymmetric than ever before.

Bitcoin has pulled back ~20% from its crescendo to $109,000 as macro fears and short-term profit-taking weigh on sentiment. But the truth is, we’re in the middle of the strongest structural setup Bitcoin has seen in years.

Bottom line: With institutional demand building and policy tailwinds forming, Bitcoin’s recent sell-off looks like an accumulation window ahead of major catalysts.

ONON: Still Running Laps Around the Competition

When Megan introduced us to ONON, the tiny Zurich-based shoemaker was still running under the radar for most investors.

But she saw the triple-digit demand growth being captured in our consumer insights database well before Wall Street had a chance to catch on – and it paid off massively.

I don’t know about you but I see On shoes everywhere. On Olympic athletes in Paris, on celebrities on Instagram, on my fellow gym rats – and on my neighbors.

On’s rise, and the profits it delivered to our followers, is a prime example of the LikeFolio edge in action: Spot an up-and-comer running past the major players like Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UAA), and Adidas (ADDY) in terms of both consumer demand and sentiment… buy the stock… and watch it soar on one blockbuster earnings report after another.

The Swiss shoemaker is still going strong, recently posting year-over-year revenue growth of 36% to $681.1 million while the old guard brands like Nike fall out of favor.

LikeFolio web data reveals a steady uptick in visits to On’s site. However, we noticed ONON’s traffic isn’t quite accelerating at the breakneck pace of years past:

That’s why, at the end of February, we recommended LikeFolio Investor subscribers go ahead and cash out their ONON shares for a +136% profit.

Stocks are making unexpected moves in this volatile market, and with ONON, we’re sitting on an enormous winner.

Bottom line: On still looks strong, but if you’re sitting on a triple-digit gain, it may be time to take the win.

See You in TradeSmith Daily

It’s been a fantastic run for Derby City Daily – these profitable picks prove it. I hope you’ve taken full advantage.

But remember: While this might be our last issue of Derby City Daily, this isn’t goodbye. LikeFolio isn’t going anywhere.

We’re simply entering a new phase, teaming up with our great friends at TradeSmith to bring you LikeFolio’s consumer insights, just with a more streamlined delivery.

After today, you’ll find us – and a whole lot more – in TradeSmith Daily, so make sure you’re subscribed here.

Until next time,

Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio