It’s Make or Break for Our Favorite Ugly Shoemaker

It’s Make or Break for Our Favorite Ugly Shoemaker

We were a first mover in the luxury shoe market, and it has paid off handsomely for our followers.

LikeFolio’s bullish buy alert for On Holding (ONON), the high-end running shoemaker, has delivered a +150% gain since January 2023.

Footwear is kind of our thing – after all, consumers LOVE to talk about their favorite shoes, especially on social media.

We’ve watched another quirky favorite, Crocs (CROX), go from laughingstock to big-time stock – handing our subscribers a 52% profit last year.

But while ONON has largely trended higher, CROX has suffered, currently trading more than 40% below its June 2024 peak amid an aggressive market selloff.

Source: TradingView

With shares trading at 52-week lows, tomorrow morning’s fourth-quarter earnings announcement is sure to be a make-or-break moment for CROX.

The bar is low. But the company needs to deliver.

Here’s what we’ll be watching – and the data that gives us reason for hope…

Crocs Has Something to Prove

Crocs’ losses accelerated after its third-quarter earnings release in October raised red flags: The company reduced its 2024 profit outlook, citing challenges tied to its HEYDUDE brand (HEYDUDE-brand revenues plummeted 17.4%).

However, Crocs exceeded expectations for the quarter. Earnings per share of $3.60 reflected 11% growth from the previous year, marking its 18th consecutive EPS beat.

Quarterly revenue also surpassed estimates, reaching $1.06 billion – a 1.6% year-over-year increase.

For the fourth quarter, Crocs expects modest growth in the core brand, particularly driven by international expansion and strong direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, though it’s cautious about U.S. consumer spending trends.

Tomorrow’s results will be telling.

Despite HEYDUDE’s revenue reduction, Crocs sees potential in selective product innovations and partnerships aimed at re-engaging consumers.

China remains a focal point for international gains, though it does expect consumer caution and regulatory challenges.

Adjusted gross margins are expected to remain positive across brands, maintaining profitability targets.

Reason for Optimism

While its last report disappointed, there’s no doubt in our mind that Crocs is a pro at leveraging the latest consumer fashion trends – especially the weird ones.

Take the next big fashion trend that the market is largely counting out: “Eclectic grandpa.” (Seriously.)

Think Chunky. Classic. Comfort. Crocs!

Source: crocs.com

The company leaned in with its “Eclectic Grandpa” collection, launching just in time for the holiday shopping rush.

Speaking of weird, remember Furby, the iconic ‘90s-era talking hamster… thing? Since Hasbro (HAS) reintroduced Furby with an updated look for the new generation, HEYDUDE jumped on the opportunity to produce limited-time Furby shoes – catering to the growing cohort of “Kidults” still nostalgic for the toys of their youth.

They’re ugly, but then again, that’s kind of Crocs’ thing. And consumers scooped them up.

Crocs’ versatile format allows it to quickly tap into emerging consumer trends – and its quick response tells us the company still has a solid grasp on what comes next, getting ahead of constantly evolving consumer tastes.

In fact, our data suggests Crocs’ on-trend designs made great holiday gifts…

Here’s Where LikeFolio Data Comes in

At LikeFolio, we have an edge over the rest of the market with our X-ray view into company website traffic.

And right now, we’re tracking a significant spike in consumer interest that Wall Street won’t see coming.

Overall, Crocs’ company-wide web visits are up about 10% year over year. That’s solid enough.

But once we drill down into our HEYDUDE data, the outlook gets a lot brighter.

Take a look at how HEYDUDE digital traffic accelerated during November and December, suggesting a strong holiday season:

Bottom line: Despite HEYDUDE’s underperformance last quarter, this web momentum may hint at an unexpected brand turnaround.

We think the market’s expectations might be too pessimistic. With a lower bar to clear, CROX could be in for a bullish surprise.

We’ll be watching tomorrow’s results closely to see if Crocs can deliver. Either way, this is a make-or-break moment for our favorite ugly shoemaker.

Until next time,

Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio

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