📅 Earnings Headliners This Week (April 17 – 21, 2023):
- Netflix (NFLX): Reports Tuesday, April 18
- United Air (UAL): Reports Tuesday, April 18
- Tesla (TSLA): Reports Wednesday, April 19
Between March 20 and April 9, fans spent 116,300,000 hours watching Season 4 of Netflix’s (NFLX) reality hit “Love Is Blind,” only to get stood up when last night’s live reunion episode never actually… aired.
The broadcasting fail was a bad omen for Netflix, just as the company is set to report earnings tomorrow (April 18): This was supposed to be like the Super Bowl for reality TV show fans – it was a big deal.
Folks were pumped.
The @netflix Twitter account had posted dozens of tweets promising a one-of-a-kind streaming event – promotional shots of the contestants arriving, a chance for viewers to participate in the line of questioning, updating its profile to “TIFFANY + BRETT FOREVER!!!” in a nod to fan-favorite contestants…
One poster even called the event “the future of reality tv,” a retweet from @netflix that didn’t exactly age well.
Between clamping down on password sharing and canceling popular shows after just one season – sci-fi thriller “1899” and the animated sitcom “Inside Job” are just two recent examples of beloved shows getting the ax – this was just the latest way Netflix has disappointed consumers.
Investors, beware…
Netflix (NFLX): Reports Tuesday, April 18
LikeFolio predictive consumer demand data has been telegraphing a first-quarter earnings upset from Netflix for some time now.
Netflix Purchase Intent (PI) Mentions of consumers spending money on the streaming service are down significantly (-30%) on a year-over-year basis, losing 25% just this quarter:
At the same time, chatter around canceling Netflix subscriptions is surging 101% from the year prior:
And LikeFolio intel regarding viewership paints a similar picture, down 16% quarter-over-quarter.
Across the board, folks are having to be more careful about where they’re spending their money – and unfortunately for Netflix, in many cases, its streaming platform is no longer making the cut.
We’re confidently bearish on NFLX heading into its earnings announcement tomorrow.
And these are two other earnings announcements that have our attention for this week…
United Air (UAL): Reports Tuesday, April 18
Wall Street will focus on the recovery of demand from the holiday quarter and any resurgence in business and international travel that could impact United Air’s (UAL) financial performance.
LikeFolio consumer data shows demand has improved from the holidays, which is a positive indicator:
But overall, the airline sector is facing headwinds – so be sure to check out my recent report on the industry here.
United is set to report Tuesday after market close.
Tesla (TSLA): Reports Wednesday, April 19
Heading into Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings announcement, a trend to watch is the potential impact of lower gas prices (if prices are high, people could be more interested in buying an electric vehicle) and overall economic conditions on demand.
So far, Purchase Intent (PI) Mentions show signs of slipping in 2023:
The company kicked off the year with a price reduction strategy to woo over price-strapped consumers. And while we expect the affordability campaign to be a long-term growth driver, it could also create short-term challenges for its profit margins.
Tesla is set to report Wednesday after market close.
It’s only Week 1, which means this earnings party is just getting started.
More Free Earnings Season Content from Derby City Daily
- We Nailed Our Earnings Calls on These Stocks Last Season. Here’s How We’re Playing Them Now: In this special video edition of Derby City Daily, I sit down with Landon and Megan to dish some of our top earnings plays looking ahead into 2023. Watch now.
- Your Free “Cheat Sheet” to Win This Earnings Season: At a glance, this “cheat sheet” gives you a breakdown of where consumers are voting with their wallets right now – and where they’re not. Check it out.
- Earnings Season Q&A with the Experts (Answers Now Available): Landon answers reader-submitted questions to help you make the most of earnings season. See if he answered yours.
- Get in Monday, Get Out by Friday: The Simplest Way to Trade Earnings: Making money during earnings season can be as simple as buying a stock on Monday that’s set to pop on earnings and selling the stock on Friday for a profit. We’ll show you how to do it.
Until next time,
Andy Swan
Co-Founder